I am a retired university professor based in Miami Beach, Florida, and I spend my time mainly in research, lecturing and private investment and consulting activity around the world.

I received my PhD in 1971 at 26 years of age from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. But I began working as an Instructor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1970, about a year before I finished my doctoral thesis. I sorely needed the income.

I left MIT as an Associate Professor in 1978 to take a chair at Harvard University as a Professor of Government. At both Harvard and MIT I specialized in macro-political economy and applied multivariate statistics and econometrics.

Beginning in the second half of the 1980’s I was a Professor of Economics in Europe – mostly in Sweden, where at the University of Gothenburg I taught, among other things, macroeconomic theory to PhD students. I also frequently was a visiting professor and scholar at other European and American universities, including the Stockholm School of Economics, the University of Paris I – Sorbonne, the University of Rome I – La Sapienza, Central European University in Prague-Budapest, Aarhus University and the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim, the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of California, Berkeley.  I was elected President of the European Public Choice Society for 1998-99.

My Curriculum Vitae gives a more complete history of those and other professional activities. You can also download some of my lecture notes, presentation slides, and scientific journal articles and books dealing with time series statistical analysis, various topics in macroeconomic theory, empirical models of presidential and congressional voting outcomes, connections between electoral politics and macroeconomic policy, various aspects of wage formation and labor economics, cross-national differences in political violence and instability, institutional determinates of international differences in economic growth and development, as well as publications on other topics which were published from the early 1970s onward.

Academic Papers and Book Chapters

“The Bread and Peace Model: 2012 Presidential Election Postmortem”  PS: Political Science and Politics, January 2013, 41 pdf16

“Obama’s Re-election Prospects Under ‘Bread and Peace’ Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election”  PS: Political Science and Politics, October 2012, 635-639 pdf16 StataProgramFile         StataDataFile

“The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives” September 22 2010 pdf16

“Tax Toleration and Tax Compliance: How Government Affects the Propensity of Firms to Enter the Unofficial Economy”  (with Violeta Piculescu), American Journal of Political Science, vol. 54, no.1, 2010, 18-33 pdf16 Appendix of Proofsstata-13StataMainProgramFile                  StataMainDataFile          StataDataBuildProgramFile         StataInputDataFile1          StataInputDataFile2

“Implications of the ‘Bread and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election”  Public Choice, vol. 137, 2008, 1-10 pdf16 stata-13StataProgramFile         StataDataFile

“Labor Market Regimes and the Effects of Monetary Policy”  (with N. Acocella and G. Di Bartolomeo), Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 30, 2008, 134-156 pdf16

“The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election”  revised 18 April 2007 and rejected by the Quarterly Journal of Political Science pdf16

Brief Essay on “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”  for the One-Hundredth Anniversary issue of the American Political Science Review, vol. 100, November 2006, 670-71 (solicited because the original 1977 article ranked 2nd on the all-time list of most cited APSR articles) pdf16

“Voting and the Macroeconomy”  in B. Weingast and D. Wittman, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, Oxford University Press, 2006, chapter 31:565-586 pdf16

“Geography, Biogeography and Why Some Countries Are Rich and Others Poor”  (with Ola Olsson), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. (PNAS), vol. 101, No. 10, 2004, 3715-3740  pdf16 stata-13StataProgramFile        StataDataFile1        StataDataFile2

“Biogeography and Long-Run Economic Development”  (with Ola Olsson), European Economic Review, vol. 49, 2005, 909-938 pdf16Data Appendix

“The Politicization of Growth Theory”  Kyklos, vol. 54, 2001, 265-286 pdf16

“Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections”  Public Choice, vol.104, Nos. 1-2, July 2000, 149-180 pdf16

“Wage Compression and Productive Efficiency: Evidence for Sweden”  (with H. Locking), Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 18, No. 4, October 2000, 755-783 pdf16

“Wage Compression, Wage Drift and Wage Inflation in Sweden”  (with H. Locking), Labour Economics, vol. 3, 1996, 109-141 pdf16

“On Ad-Hominem Assertion and Scientific Discourse in the Study of Sociotropic and Egocentric Motivations of Political Attitudes and Behavior”  Scandinavian Political Studies, vol. 19, No. 3, 1996, 283-290 pdf16

“The Partisan Theory of Macroeconomic Cycles:  More Theory and Evidence”  Economics and Politics, vol. 6, 1994, 1-23, translated to Japanese in Leviathan, vol. 12, 1993, 126-160 pdf16

“Partisan Theory After Fifteen Years”  European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 8, 1992, 361-373 pdf16

“Market Forces, Trade Union Ideology and Trends in Wage Dispersion”  Acta Sociologica, vol. 34, 1991, 89-102 pdf16

“Wage Compression And Trade Union Action in Sweden”  in Inga Persson, ed. Generating Equality In The Welfare State — The Swedish Experience, Oslo:  Norwegian University Press, 1990 pdf16

“Wage Compression Under Solidarity Bargaining in Sweden”  FIEF Research Report, No. 30, Stockholm, 1990 pdf16

“Income Distribution in the United States”  (with C. Dennis) American Political Science Review, June 1988, 467-490 pdf16

“Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes in the United States”  American Economic Review, vol. 76, 1986, 66-70 pdf16

“Inflation, Political Support and Macroeconomic Policy”  in Leon Lindberg and Charles Maier, eds.  The Politics of Inflation and Economic Stagnation. Washington:  Brookings Institution, 1985, 175-195 pdf16

“Macroeconomic Performance, Macroeconomic Policy and Electoral Politics in Industrial Democracies”  in Samuel Huntington and Joseph Nye, eds., Global Dilemmas. University Press of America, Lanham, MD, 1985, 123-136 pdf16

“Difference Equation Dynamics; Comment on Beck”  American Political Science Review, vol. 77, 1983, 447-451 pdf16

“Performance Economique et Fonction de Popularite des Presidents Pompidiou et Giscard d’Estaing”  Revue d’Economie Politique, vol. 93, 1983, 44-61 pdf16

“Public Concern About Inflation and Unemployment in the United States: Trends, Correlates and Political Implications”  in Robert E. Hall, ed., Inflation:  Causes and Effects, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago Press, 1982, 211-231 pdf16

“President Reagan’s Mandate from the 1980 Elections:  A Shift to the Right?”  American Politics Quarterly, vol. 10, October 1982, 387-420 pdf16

“On the Demand for Macroeconomic Outcomes: Macroeconomic Performance and Mass Political Support in the United States, Great Britain and Germany”  Journal of Politics, vol. 44, May 1982, 426-462 pdf16

“The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups”  American Journal of Political Science, vol. 26, May 1982, 312-32 pdf16

“Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among the Occupational Classes”  American Political Science Review, vol. 76, June 1982, 259-79 pdf16

“More on Economic Performance and Political Support in Britain”  American Political Science Review, vol. 76, June 1982, 282-284 pdf16

“Economics and Politics in France:  Economic Performance and Mass Political Support for Presidents Pompidou and Giscard d’Estaing”  European Journal of Political Research, vol. 9, 1981, 133-45 pdf16

“The Impact of Economic Performance on Electoral Support in Sweden, 1967-1978”  (with Henrik J. Madsen) Scandinavian Political Studies, vol. 4, 1981, 33-50 pdf16

“Macroeconomic Performance and Mass Political Support in the United States and Great Britain”  (with N. Vasilatos) in Hibbs and Fassbender, eds. Contemporary Political Economy: Studies on The Interdependence of Politics and Economics, Contributions to Economic analysis No. 135, North-Holland, 1981 pdf16

“Public Reactions to the Growth of Taxation and Government Expenditure”  (with Henrik Jess Madsen) World Politics, vol. 33, April 1981, 413-35 pdf16

“The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance: The Dynamics of Public Opinion Toward Unemployment and Inflation”  American Journal of Political Science, vol. 23, November 1979, 705-31 pdf16

“Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy: Reply to Payne”  American Political Science Review, vol. 73, March 1979, 185-190 pdf16

“On the Political Economy of Long-Run Trends in Strike Activity”  British Journal of Political Science, vol. 8, April 1978, 153-75 pdf16

“Trade Union Power, Wage Inflation, and Labor Militancy: A Comparative Analysis”  Center for International Studies, MIT, C1977-6 reprinted in Hibbs, The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies, Harvard University Press, 1987, chapter 3, 77-114 pdf16

“Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”  American Political Science Review, vol. 71, December 1977, 1467-87; reprinted in translation in Italian and Spanish pdf16

“On Analyzing the Effects of Policy Interventions: Box-Jenkins Vs. Structural Equation Models”  Sociological Methodology, vol. 8, 1977, 137-79 pdf16

“Industrial Conflict in Advanced Industrial Societies”  American Political Science Review, vol. 70, December 1976, 1033-58pdf16

“Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models”  Sociological Methodology, vol. 5, 1973-74, 252-308pdf16