douglas@douglas-hibbs.com

 

Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr.

 

 

 

 

 

More than twenty years ago I proposed what is known as the Bread and Peace model of presidential voting outcomes. The model claims that just two fundamental variables systematically affected postwar aggregate votes for president: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. Here you will find a graph showing the modelís fit to the 2012 outcome (President Obama obtained 52% of the two-party vote) in perspective of all postwar elections, and here you will find an analysis of how the alleged growth of income inequality may have weakened the historically strong connection of average income growth to presidential voting results: Slides Inequality Trends and Bread and Peace voting.

 

Pre-election forecasts of the Bread and Peace model underestimated President Obamaís 2012 vote share by 4-5 percentage points, a large error equivalent to around 2 model standard errors that was partly due to weaker growth in the Bureau of Economic Analysisí pre-election calibration of real income growth than later was indicated by revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts: published article; unabridged longer version with associated Stata program and data files;lecture slides; post-mortem discussion.

Here you will find links here to earlier applications of the Bread and Peace model to the presidential elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 along with links to my academic writing on economics and elections.

 

The US mid-term congressional elections will take place on November 4 2014. Here you will find discussion of my three-factor Bread, Incumbency and Balance model of mid-term House seat outcomes featuring a pre-election analysis of the 2010 mid-term contest. A parallel analysis of presidential-year House elections in my two-factor Bread and Incumbency model under-estimated the number of House wins by the Democrats in 2012 (200) by 14 seats, an error equivalent to a little more than 1 model standard deviation.

 

 

 

 

 


 

I am a career-long academic who retired from a chair as Professor of Economics at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden at lot earlier than usual, in February 2005, although I maintained an affiliation with the university as a senior fellow at the CEFOS research institute until June 2011. Nowadays I spend my time mainly in academic research, lecturing and private investment and consulting activity based in Miami Beach, Florida while maintaining strong ties to Europe.

I got my PhD in 1971 just before I turned 27 years old from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. But I began working as an Instructor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1970, about a year before I finished my doctoral thesis. I sorely needed the income.

I left MIT as an Associate Professor in 1978 to take a chair at Harvard University as a Professor of Government. At both Harvard and MIT I specialized in macro-political economy and applied multivariate statistics and econometrics.

Beginning in the second half of the 1980's I was a Professor of Economics in Europe - mostly in Sweden. However, I frequently visited other European and American universities, including the University of Paris-Sorbonne, the University of Rome-La Sapienza, Central European University, Prague-Budapest, Aarhus University, the University of Copenhagen, University of Trondheim (NTNU), the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of California, Berkeley.  I also was elected President of the European Public Choice Society for 1998-99.

You can find the history of those and other professional activities in my complete Curriculum Vitae:html††† pdf

Most of my scientific publications on time series statistical analysis, macro- political economy, cross-national differences in political violence and instability, various aspects of empirical macroeconomics, labor economics, economic growth and development and other topics that were published from the early 1970s up to the present can be downloaded in pdf format here.

 

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At Gothenburg University and other places I taught applied econometrics, macro-political economy and macroeconomic theory to graduate students. You will find some of my macroeconomic theory lectures here.