clear /* THIS STATA DO-FILE DOCUMENTS TABLE 1, APPENDIX TABLE AND FIGURE 1 OF HIBBS "IMPLICATIONS OF THE BREAD AND PEACE MODEL FOR THE 2008 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION" PUBLIC CHOICE 2008 */ version 9 set mem 100m, permanently cd C:\myfiles-2008\PresVoteUS-2008\PublicChoice-2008\Stata\ use PC-2008-06-01-documentation.dta describe, fullnames sort qdates tsset qdates, quarterly sort qdates gen r = dpi_pc/(cpi_sa_8284/100) gen lnr = log(r) gen dlnr = (lnr-L1.lnr)*400 * Table 1 Bread and Peace Estimates nl ( presvote = {b0} + {bdlnr}*((1.0*wtq16*dlnr+{g}*L1.dlnr /// +{g}^2*L2.dlnr+{g}^3*L3.dlnr+{g}^4*L4.dlnr+{g}^5*L5.dlnr /// +{g}^6*L6.dlnr +{g}^7*L7.dlnr+{g}^8*L8.dlnr+{g}^9*L9.dlnr /// +{g}^10*L10.dlnr+{g}^11*L11.dlnr /// +{g}^12*L12.dlnr+{g}^13*L13.dlnr+{g}^14*L14.dlnr) / (1.0*wtq16+{g} /// +{g}^2+{g}^3+{g}^4+{g}^5+{g}^6+{g}^7+{g}^8+{g}^9+{g}^10+{g}^11 /// +{g}^12+{g}^13+{g}^14)) + {bkia_permil}*cumkia_permil_64c ) /// if electq==1 &year>1948 & year<2005, /// variables(presvote dlnr wtq16 cumkia_permil_64c) /// initial(b0 45 g 0.95 bdlnr 4 bkia_permil -0.4) iterate(500) nolog predict pvhat_pm if e(sample), yhat predict error_pm if e(sample), residual * Inputs to Figure 1 "Bread and Peace Voting" gen ghat_pm = 0.9093659 gen bdlnr_pm = 3.553154 gen b0_pm = 46.23475 gen bkia_pm = -.0522652 gen Rbar_pm = /// (1.0*wtq16*dlnr+ghat_pm*L1.dlnr /// +ghat_pm^2*L2.dlnr+ghat_pm^3*L3.dlnr+ghat_pm^4*L4.dlnr /// +ghat_pm^5*L5.dlnr+ghat_pm^6*L6.dlnr /// +ghat_pm^7*L7.dlnr+ghat_pm^8*L8.dlnr+ghat_pm^9*L9.dlnr /// +ghat_pm^10*L10.dlnr+ghat_pm^11*L11.dlnr /// +ghat_pm^12*L12.dlnr+ghat_pm^13*L13.dlnr /// +ghat_pm^14*L14.dlnr) / (1.0*wtq16+ghat_pm /// +ghat_pm^2+ghat_pm^3+ghat_pm^4+ghat_pm^5+ghat_pm^6+ /// ghat_pm^7+ghat_pm^8+ghat_pm^9+ghat_pm^10+ghat_pm^11 /// +ghat_pm^12+ghat_pm^13+ghat_pm^14) if electq==1 gen presvote_nowar = presvote + 0.0522652*cumkia_permil_64c replace presvote_nowar=. if year==1952 | year==1968 gen pvhat_nowar = pvhat_pm+ .0522652*cumkia_permil_64c replace pvhat_nowar=. if year==1952 | year==1968 gen year_nowar = year replace year_nowar = . if year==1952 | year==1968 gen vote5268 = presvote if year==1952 | year==1968 gen pos = 3 replace pos = 2 if year_now==1956 replace pos = 1 if year==1960 replace pos = 4 if year ==1996 replace pos = 1 if year==2000 replace pos = 11 if year==1988 replace pos = 12 if year==1960 * Figure 1 graph twoway connected presvote_nowar pvhat_nowar vote5268 Rbar_pm, /// sort(pvhat_nowar) msymbol(O i D) /// connect(i l i) lcolor(white black) lwidth(none thick) /// mlabel(year_nowar) xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) mlabvposition(pos) /// title("Figure 1. Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections"" " , /// margin(small) size(medlarge) justification(left) ) /// ytitle("Incumbent party vote share (%)", /// margin(small) size(medsmall)) /// xtitle("Weighted-average per capita real income growth over the term (%)", /// margin(small) size(medsmall)) /// xlabel(-.5(.5)4.5) msize(large large medium) /// ylabel(40(5)65, grid gstyle(dot) glwidth(thin) ) /// legend(off) /// mfcolor(black black red) mcolor(black black red) msize(3 3 2.5) /// text(44.6 2.4 " 1952 Korea", place(se) size(small)) /// text(49.6 3.0 " 1968 Vietnam", place(se) size(small)) /// graphregion(fcolor(white)) /// caption("Note: Regression line and war effects computed from Bread and Peace equation estimates in Table 1.", /// size(vsmall) ) * Inputs to Appendix Table gen dlnr_effect = 3.553154*Rbar_pm gen kia_effect = -.0522652*cumkia_permil_64c gen pvhat_pm2 = 46.23475+dlnr_effect+kia_effect gen kiapm = cumkia_permil_64c gen kia = cumkia_64c*1000 gen vhat = pvhat_pm gen error = error_pm gen Rbar = Rbar_pm gen dR_effect = dlnr_effect gen vote = presvote * display formats Appendix Table format kiapm vhat vote error Rbar dR_effect %9.1f format kia %9.0f format dlnr_effect kia_effect pvhat_pm2 %9.1f gen candidates = "name" * Appendix Table 3 list candidates year vote vhat error Rbar dR_effect /// kia kiapm kia_effect /// if electq==1 & year~=1948, clean noobs separator(0)